Belgium vs Italy Euro 2021 Prediction and Betting Tips

Belgium vs Italy Euro 2021 Prediction and Betting Tips 

Belgium vs Italy will be the second game in the quarterfinals of Euro 2020. The Belgium vs Italy match will take place on June 2 at 2100 hrs Central Eastern European Summer Time at the Allianz Arena in Munich,Germany.

Belgium Form, potential line up and Tactics

Belgium qualified for the quarter finals in Euro 2020 by defeating Portugal 1-0 in the round of 16. With this victory over Portugal Belgium have equalled their longest winning streak at major tournaments, winning five in a row for the second time (both under Roberto Martínez).

Belgium have won 10 of their 11 games across the World Cup and European Championships since Martínez took charge.

Belgium’s last match against Portugal was not easy. The first half was a bit slow and boring but Thorgan Hazard’s amazing goal from outside the box changed the tempo of the game in the second half.

Portugal was attacking viciously in the second half especially after the introduction of Joao Felix and Bruno Fernandes. 

This is also reflected in the statistics…

Belgium had 6 attempts during the game, with 1 attempt on target while Portugal had a massive 23 attempts during the game.

Belgium succeeded primarily because of three reasons:

They were a well drilled and disciplined squad.Belgium were tactically fluid, they could easily form into a compact shape, spread out and press high when in possession and finally, they were also good at quick counter attacks.Belgium were also excellent at closing space.

Keep these three points in mind because these three points will help you understand our prediction for the Belgium vs Italy game in the quarter final of Euro 2020.

Check out our predictions for Italy vs England in the Euro 2020 final

This performance is not surprising from Belgium. Unlike many teams like Germany whose main players retired after their peak, Belgium’s squad has retained its main talent while introducing newer players who play regularly.

Belgium tactics

Belgium lines up in a 3-4-3 formation. When Belgium needs to defend the two wide midfielders, Thorgan Hazard and Thomas Meunier drop back in defence while the two forwards fall back in midfield and Lukaku stays ahead. Effectively, in defence, Belgium’s shape resembles a 4-5-1 in defence.

Belgium likes to build from the back and attack from the left. The wide midfielders push wide while the two wide forwards cut inside the box. The midfielders are the key part in this system as they create scintillating crosses and passes into the box and or can make overlapping runs into the box and shoot.

The other key component of this system is one of the best creative players in the world, Kevin De Bruyne. We will explain his role through the picture below that explains how Belgium attack.

Belgium like to pile on the pressure on their opponents by pressing their team high up the pitch as you can see from the picture above.

The three man defence is sitting at the halfway line. Thorgan Hazard can go wide and make crosses. If the ball is on the right, He will stay a bit further back and wait for the opportunity to burst into the box.

We saw him do exactly that in his goal against Portugal in the round of 16.

In attack, Belgium’s shape looks like a 3-2-5. The two wide midfielders join the 3 forwards while the two midfielders stay a bit further back to try and win the ball if Belgium loses possession.

De Bruyne creates a lot of options and chances because of the way he plays. He can run into the box, play one-two passes with the right midfielder and drift wide to create crosses, he can run straight if Belgians are attacking from the left.

Apart from his off the ball movements, if he gets the ball he can create many chances which are represented by the red curved lines in the picture above.

He can create through balls for Meunier on the right, stretch the play and pass it to the left midfielder, create through balls and aerial long balls for the forwards or he can add extra pressure by letting one of the midfielders (usually tielemans) join the attack and an an extra man in attack in the box and giving him a chances to shoot.

Belgium Weakness

Belgium are a solid side with good defensive discipline. But they are prone to quick counter attacks because their centerbacks Alderweireld,Vermaelen and Vertonghen are 32,35 and 34 respectively.

Their experience does help them position properly, set effective offside traps and anticipate the game well but they have to rely on the 2 midfielders in front of them to prevent these long balls.

Belgium can also be exposed in one of the flanks (usually the left) where they attack from which Italy could exploit.

Belgium can be especially exposed to risk if one of their midfielders joins the attack and fails to track back. 

In the game against Portugal though the Belgium players showed good defensive discipline often falling back and preventing Portugal from attacking, but when Portugal brought on more attacking players they showed that Belgium’s exceptional and compact defense can still be broken down.

When De Bruyne was not present Belgium weren’t able to create a lot of chances during the group stage. He was taken off at half time and we are waiting for an update regarding his injury. His absence will affect Belgium’s opportunities for creating chances.

Belgium Predicted Line up For Belgium vs Italy

Hazard and De Bruyne were taken off in Belgium’s game against Portugal because of injury concerns. According to Belgium’s manager, Roberto Martinez both of them are set to miss out the quarter final game against Italy.

Italy Form, potential line up and Tactics

Italy qualified for the quarterfinals after defeating Austria 2-1 in extra time in the round of 16.  After their victory over Austria Italy are now undefeated in 31 games. Italy’s last defeat was in September 2018 in a nations league game against Portugal.

This was the first real test for Italy in the European Championship after they cruised through the group stage conceding ZERO goals and scoring 7 goals in 3 games.

We have covered Italy’s tactics in our previous match reviews in slotfreespin but we will be covering them nonetheless here and demonstrate how Italy played in the group stage and against Austria.

We will then highlight their strengths and weaknesses and predict how they will play against Belgium and then try to make a prediction based on this information. If you like to bet on football games we will then be giving you some nice betting tips for the Belgium vs Italy game in Euro 2020.

How Italy played during Euro 2020- the numbers

Italy is currently ranked 7th best team in Europe according to Fifa’s ranking. Italy was in group A of Euro 2020 where they faced Switzerland who are ranked 13th,Wales who are ranked 17th and Turkey who are ranked 29th in Europe.

Italy beat Turkey 3-0, a side that had conceded just 3 goals during the qualifiers for Euro 2020. They then went on to beat Switzerland 3-0 , a team which is also very hard to break down because they defend very well but can also attack on the counter and they did the same with Wales who can also be deadly on the counter but is hard to break down.

In the group stage Italy demonstrated that they could break down teams that can sit back and defend.

This reflects in their stats during the group stage:

Italy scored 7 goals. They were tied with Belgium and Portugal on 2nd spot for the most number of goals during the group stage.Italy had also the second highest attempts on goal at 60, only 1 shy of Denmark who had 61 attempts. There was a clear gap between these two teams and other teams. The team with the third highest attempts was Switzerland, with 47 attempts, 13 less than Italy.

How Italy played during Euro 2020- the tactics

Along with France, Italy is known to be the fashion capital of the world. Just like the French the Italians are known to be elegant and this reflects in the style of Football they play under their current manager Roberto Mancini.

Under Mancini Italy:

Usually plays in a 4-3-3 formationPlays a direct style of football with high pressingBuilds from the back and has the ability to quickly turn defence into attack.

Italy’s formation looks something like this.

In defence, the other 2 attackers Insigne and Berardi would fall back with the three men in midfield (Jorginho,Locatelli and Barella) to make it look more like a 4-5-1 formation with Immobile as the lone striker staying in front of them waiting for the counter attack when Italy won the ball.

It’s in attack though Italy would look like the picture below:

So when Italy were building up attacks, the entire team would push very high up the pitch with one defender, Bonucci staying a bit further back, Chiellini pushing a bit further forward, Florenzi the right back, forming a back three and flanking Chiellini, Jorginho just staying ahead of them.

This allowed them to form a diamond and create many passing opportunities to crack open compact defences from the back while committing men forward.

The Left back Spinnazola was given the freedom to attack from wide and whip in crosses into the box while the wide left forward Insigne would cut inside the box with Immobile. 

Berrardi would stay a bit wide.

Italy had a preference for attacking from the left. If the attack was catching steam, then one of the midfielders, like barrella, would push into the box. 

This meant that Italy had 5 men in the box. Keep this fact in mind. If you remember correctly Belgium would try to have 5 men in the box as well with the two wide midfielders joining the defenders.

The front three are dynamic and fluid, which means that they keep switching positions. The striker Ciro Immobile can fall back to collect the ball and make amazing through balls for the other two forwards.

In midfield Jorginho starts behind the other two midfielders who usually push forward more.

Jorginho is extremely talented in winning back balls and turning defence into attack by making through balls and long balls from deep.

Even Verratti and Locatelli are good at doing Jorginho’s job so if Jorginho is marked.

Italy Weakness

Just Like Belgium, Italy’s defenders are quite old and slow but very talented. Italy are also quite exposed for counter attacks from the left as Spinazzola likes to bomb forward. They may also be liable to broken down from the wide.

Italy Predicted line up

Verratti has justified his reintroduction to the squad. After missing out against Austria, Captain Chiellini and the right back Florenzi might be back at the back. Chiesa might get his first start in the Euro 2020 because of his performance and goal against Austria

Belgium vs Italy Euro 2021 Predictions

Belgium face a major disadvantage because of De Bruyne’s injury.
Belgium will struggle to create chances in De Bruyne’s absence just like they did during the group stage. Belgium will try to hit Italy on the counter to score.
Italy on it’s part would be better at countering Belgium because they have the players that can progress the ball quickly from defense into attack, Belgium can do that as well but statistically speaking they are not better than Italy in doing so .
Belgium would be more prone to counter attacks if they decide to push Tielemans further forward. The reason for this is simple, If Tielemans decides to be more daring and run into the box, Belgium would struggle to win the ball with just Witsel. Menieur would try to cover that space as well as the space on the right. If Meunier pushes up as well to fill this space, Belgium will have just men at the back and the could attack from the left easily with Spinnazola from a good counter attacking move.
Belgium can switch things up and try to attack Italy from the right instead of preferring to attack from the left. This would be done to exploit the space that Spinnazolla tends to leave behind when he is bombing forward from the left.
Belgium will be wary of the threat from Spinnazzola so they might instruct Tielemans to be careful so that Meunier can defend against a potential counter from Spinnazzola. Unless Belgium concedes they will exercise this caution.Italy on the other hand will have a numerical advantage in midfield. The reasons for this is how they attack vs how they defend. As we pointed out earlier, Italy falls back in a 4-5-1 whereas Belgium attacks in a 3-2-5 or a 2-3-6. This leaves Belgium at an advantage in front of goal because Italy have 4 men at the back.

But Jorginho can fall further back in the box and which means Italy have 5 men at the back but because Jorginho is very quick he can win the ball and progress it into midfield or pass it wide to Spinazzola which leaves Belgium at a disadvantage numerically.
Italy’s midfielders are better at making interceptions. Jorginho made an average of 2.8 interceptions per game, Verratti made 1 and Locatelli made 0.7. Whereas in the Belgium side Axel Witsel made an average of 0 and Tielemans made 1. Dendoncker who played in place of Witsel during most of the group stage also made 1.

This is a key stat because it gives us a picture of how likely a team’s midfield is to prevent dangerous balls from reaching their defenders.
Jorginho also made 0.8 through balls per game, whereas only Tielemans managed to make a through ball which was 0.3 per game. De Bruyne had the same average but if he misses the game then Belgium lose their creative edge even more.
This statistic seems to suggest that Italy again are at an advantage in making dangerous balls from midfield either during a counter attack or by patiently building up an attack.
A final piece of important statistic that Belgian fans might not like to see is the number of long balls created per game. Yet again, Italy’s midfield wins here. Verratti, Locatelli and Jorginho created 2.3,2.5 and 1.8 long balls per game compared to Belgium’s midfielders Witsel and Tielemans who managed only 1.7 per game. This means Italy’s midfielders are more skilled at making dangerous long balls to their forwards that could penetrate defences compared to Belgium’s midfielders.

Belgium though had De Bruyne who made an average of 4 which is slightly above Italy’s forward, Insigne who made 3.7. This yet again suggests that Belgium have a clear reliance on De Bruyne for creating chances. If De Bruyne misses the game Belgium will suffer even more in terms of chance creation.

Based on these factors we can see that both teams do have quality in depth, are in great form, and have complementary weaknesses. 

But that being said, Italy has a slight edge in midfield thanks to Jorginho and Verratti and at least on paper are a stronger threat when it comes to recovering balls and progressing the balls to their attackers and quickly turning defence into attack.

Based on these facts we expect the Belgium vs Italy game to end 1-0.

Belgium vs Italy Euro 2021 Odds

Bookmakers are offering the following odds for the Belgium vs Italy game in Euro 2020:

Belgium 3.30Draw 3.15Italy 2.33

From these odds we can clearly see that Italy are favorites to win this quarterfinal game.

Bookmaker offers for Belgium vs Italy and Euro 2020 

In our opinion, b-bets is one of the best bookmakers for betting on the Euro 2020 games. They currently have a cashback offer that gives you €1 back for every €5 you make on a bet on the Euro 2020. .

You can click on the following image to visit b-Bets and claim this offer in their promotion section.

Belgium vs Italy Betting Tips

If you read our articles on football betting systems and football betting tips, you would realize Belgium vs Italy is the perfect match to place a bet on in Euro 2020.

The reason for that is simple, the odds for both teams are above 2.0 and it will be a closely contested match.

This means that you can double your money by betting on Italy and triple your money if you bet on Belgium.

That being said, we have a betting tip for you that could help you win some money no matter who wins…

Place one bet on Italy to win and one bet(of equal amount) on Belgium  to win. In this case you only lose your money if there is a draw but that is unlikely to happen in such a crucial game.

So essentially what you do is you split your budget for the game. Let’s say you have a budget of €200 for this game. You place one bet of €100 on Italy and another €100 on Belgium.

If Belgium wins your Profit percentage would be 65% because your profit would be €330-€200=€130.

If Italy wins you would still end up with a 16.5% profit (€233-€200=€33. 33 is 16.5% of 200).

Sure, this system means that your profit percentage would be lower if you just bet on one team (133 % profit if you just bet on Italy and 230% if you just bet on Belgium) but this system ensures that you don’t lose any money.

Keep in mind that this is not a fool proof system. If the match ends in a draw you will lose but as we pointed out earlier, the likelihood of a draw is very low.

TeamOddsBet AmountWinProfit %Italy2.33€100€23316.5%Belgium3.30€100€33065%

If you liked our predictions for the Belgium vs Italy quarterfinal match in Euro 2020, check out our other previews for the quarterfinals:

Switzerland vs Spain predictions

Italy vs Spain Euro 2020 Predictions and Betting Tips

Italy vs Spain Euro 2020 Predictions and Betting Tips

After nearly a month of fascinating Football this summer, we have finally reached the semi-finals of Euro 2020.

Italy vs Spain will be the first semi final match in Euro 2020. The Italy vs Spain match will take place on July 6 at 2100 hrs Central Eastern European Summer Time at the Wembley Stadium in London.

Italy’s Current Form

Italy waltzed through to the round of 16 as winners of group A, winning each of their 3 games and then followed it up with an excellent performance against Austria in the round of 16.

Italy seemed to face its first real challenge in the semi finals when they faced the best ranked team in the world, Belgium.

Belgium were in control of the game and defending with determination. Belgium were compact in defence with 5 men at the back which proved to be effective against most teams during Euro 2020. 

This is reflected in the statistics as well. Prior to facing Italy, Belgium had one of the best defensive records in the European Championship. They just conceded 1 goal in 4 games.

Belgium’s defense was effective in cancelling out one of the most attacking teams during Euro 2020, Portugal. Portugal attempted 23 shots against Belgium in the round of 16 knockout game which was arguably the highest number of attempts of any team during Euro 2020.

These facts stand as evidence of how strong Belgium’s defence was.

In our game preview for the Belgium vs Italy game we had mentioned just how talented Italy was in breaking even the tightest defences and they did exactly that in the 31st minute.

Verratti made an excellent pass to Barrella who was in the box, Barrella was being marked by 3 Belgian defenders as soon as he received the ball and then was tackled, and still managed to find his feet and instantly make a clinical shot into the far corner which caught Belgium’s goalkeeper, Courtois by surprise.

This goal demonstrates amazing athleticism and technical quality from Barrella and Italy as a team.

The second goal from Italy which was scored by Lorenzo Insigne was also a piece of technical brilliance. 

Check out our predictions for Italy vs England in the Euro 2020 final!
He dribbled from the center of the pitch and made an excellent shot past 3 Belgium defenders outside the box which was again placed excellently that beat Courtois again.

These facts clearly demonstrate Italy’s attacking prowess and their technical ability to score even against the best defenses in the world.

But apart from their amazing attacking prowess Italy also showed determination in defence.

After Belgium conceded in the 31st minute Belgium attacked Italy ruthlessly.

Belgium made 10 attempts on goal which is higher than the 8.3 attempts per game they attempted. In fact this is the second highest number of attempts they made during Euro 2020. This number is even higher than the attempts Belgium made against Portugal.

Although Belgium made several amazing attempts, and eventually scored through a penalty. In the second half Belgium were extremely ruthless in attack. Belgium were also especially quick in transitioning from defence to attack.

But the Italian defence stayed strong and the game ended 2-1.

With this win over Belgium, Italy are now undefeated in 32 games! The last time Italy lost the game was close to 3 years ago in September 2018!

With these facts in mind it seems very likely that Spain might have a hard time winning against such a talented team.

Italy Tactics

In the picture above from whoscored.com, you can see Italy positioning  in attack against Belgium. This is very much different from the way they positioned themselves usually when they are in attack when Italy tends to push much higher up the pitch, just like in the picture below:

Did you notice the difference in between the two pictures? As you can see,Italy? For starters  Jorginho (number 8) is sitting further back, in fact all the players are from their usual attacking position (which is picture 2).

The whole team is quite compact in attack. This is a good indication of discipline in Italy’s build up because if there is too much space between the players that space can be exploited by the opposition team.

Being compact in attack is hard to do because individual players can become a bit too excited while pressing without the ball or passing and running forward with the ball.

Another key difference we can see is that the right full back and the other center back have ffallen further back with the main center back and Number 6 and Number 18 (Verratti and Barrella) are closer to the wide forwards (Numbers 10 and 14) respectively.

This suggests that the 2 midfielders played close to the 2 forwards which created a lot of opportunities and passes for them. The other full back, Spinnazzola also was cautious and was not positioned too further forward demonstrating his discipline with regards to his defensive duties.

We can also see that most of Italy came from the left. In fact, 50% of their attacks came from the left compared to 23% from the center and 27% from the right.

From these observations we can conclude that Italy are a tactically disciplined and technically gifted team.

Italy Predicted line up for Italy vs Spain

Spinnazzola was a key player for Italy considering he was essential in assisting the attacks as a left full back. 

He was injured during the game and medical examinations after the game revealed that he ruptured his Achilles tendon. This is a serious injury and ends Spinnazzola’s journey in Euro 2020. 

We at slotfreespin hope Spinnazzola recovers from this unfortunate injury.

We don’t expect any changes to the line up but we are not sure about the right forward spot because both Chiesa and Berrardi are equally talented so don’t be surprised if one starts over the other.

4-3-3

Donnarumma,Emerson,Bonucci,Chiellini,Florenzi,Verratti,Jorginho,Barella,Insigne,Immobile,Chiesa

Spain Form

Before starting their Euro 2020 campaign Spain was experiencing a great run of form. Spain qualified for this season’s nations league finals. They scored 13 goals and conceded just 3 goals on their triumphant march to the finals.

During the nations league, only Belgium scored more goals than Spain and only Italy conceded fewer goals than Spain.

Spain has also lost only 1 of the 13 games they played prior to the Euro 2020. However, during this time they also struggled to decisively win their games because they won 6 of those games and drew 6 of them.

These problems were also evident during Spain’s group stage games. Spain’s first two matches ended up in a draw. Goals were also hard to come by with one of the games ending 0-0. But Spain turned it around with their amazing performance against Slovakia with the game ending 5-0!

The knockout game against Croatia seemed to be going well for Spain.After conceding a goal in the 20th minute Spain equalized in the 38th minute . They would go on to put on a strong performance in the second half and were leading thanks to a goal in the 57th and then another one from Ferran Torres in the 77th minute.

After leading 3-1 at this point, qualification to the quarterfinals seemed guaranteed but Spain conceded two goals in quick succession. In the last 10 minutes of the game.

The game would go on to extra time and Spain would score two goals to win the game 5-3.

This game showcased an important weakness in the Spanish side, the propensity to concede goals from counter-attacks. 

Spain’s coach recognized this problem and instructed his side to play more cautiously in the quarter final game against Switzerland which ended in yet another draw. The game was eventually decided through a penalty shootout.

Spain tactics

If there is one word to describe Spain’s tactics that word would be “fluid”. Spain is packed with talent across the field and it is difficult for teams to predict the way this team will pay. We will try our best to summarize Spain’s tactics during the European Championship.

Spain usually sets up in a 4-3-3 formationEither both or of the forwards like to stay wideEither both the full backs will join the attack from wide or one of them falls back to form a back 3.Spain like to play to play a possession based style of football with more emphasis on directnessThe forward is more of a “false 9”.The players are very adaptable in regards to with they have to do on the pitch

The Spaniards like to press but with bigger teams, they often leave out space that the opposition tends to exploit well which we saw in their games against Croatia and Switzerland.
Keep these facts in mind as we head towards the predictions for the Italy vs Spain game in the semi final of Euro 2020…

Spain lineup

4-3-3

Unai Simon,Alba,Pau Torres,Laporte,Azpilicueta,Pedri,Busquets,Koke,Olmo,Morata,Ferran Torres.

Italy vs Spain Euro 2021 Odds

Bookmakers are offering the following odds for the Italy vs Spain game in Euro 2020:

Italy 2.47Draw 3.20Spain 3.10

Italy vs Spain Euro 2020 Predictions

We can clearly see from the bookmaker odds that Italy are the favorites to win this semi final game between Italy vs Spain. If you checked out the review we did on Italy’s current form and performance and compare that to Spain’s we can clearly see why that is.

We believe that Spain will yet again try to be aggressive while pressing Italy because they must have noticed that if they remain compact without pressing Italy can shoot from long and score just like Italy did with Insigne’s goal against Belgium.

But as we pointed out earlier, Spain are prone to counter attacks when they go on the offensive and press aggressively. Italy on the other hand are more than capable of scoring on counter-attacks.

If Spain do decide to sit back then Italy will surely break them down because they broke down the strongest defensive teams in the world in their game against Belgium. We also talked about how they broke the Belgian defence.

Because of Spinnazzola’s injury we expect Spain to attack from the right in order to make the most of his absence.

But in spite of this fact, we believe that Italy will win 2-1.

Italy vs Spain Betting Tips

From these odds we can clearly see that Italy are favorites to win this quarterfinal game.

If you read our articles on football betting systems and football betting tips, you would realize Italy vs Spain is the perfect match to place a bet on in Euro 2020.

The reason for that is simple, the odds for both teams are above 2.0 and it will be a closely contested match.

This means that you can more than double your money by betting on Italy and triple your money if you bet on Spain or a draw.

That being said, we have a betting tip for you that could help you win some money no matter who wins…

Place one bet on Italy to win and one bet(of equal amount) on Spain  to win. In this case you only lose your money if there is a draw but that is unlikely to happen in such a crucial game.

So essentially what you do is you split your budget for the game. Let’s say you have a budget of €200 for this game. You place one bet of €100 on Italy and another €100 on Spain.

If Spain wins your Profit percentage would be 55% because your Profit would be €310-€200=€110 and 110 is 55% of your investment of 200.

If Italy wins you would still end up with a 23.5% profit (€255-€200=€47 is 23.5% of 200).

Sure, this system means that your profit percentage would be lower if you just bet on one team (210 % profit if you just bet on Spain and 147% if you just bet on Italy) but this system reduces the chances that you will lose your money.

Keep in mind that this is not a fool proof system. If the match ends in a draw you will lose but as we pointed out earlier, the likelihood of a draw is very low.

TeamOddsBet AmountWinProfit %Spain3.10€100€31055%Italy2.47€100€24723.5%

Euro 2020 Final: Italy vs England Predictions,Odds & Betting Tips

Euro 2020 Final: Italy vs England Predictions,Odds & Betting Tips 

After nearly a month of some action packed football we have finally reached the final of Euro 2020! Euro 2020 was full of twists and turns and goals and of course, some amazing performances both at an individual and team level.

In this article we will be giving you our predictions for the Euro 2020 final game between Italy and England and try to answer the question “who will win Euro 2020?”. We will also be sharing some betting tips for the Italy vs England game that could help you get a bang for your buck.

But before we get there let’s take a look at the numbers and how Italy and England reached the final…

Bookmaker odds for Euro 2020 Winners Before the tournament

We have mentioned the odds and probability of the top 8 teams that bookmakers expected to win just before Euro 2021 kicked off. These odds were calculated on June 7 2021, just 4 days before Euro 2020 kicked off.

TeamOddsProbability of winning Euro 2020FIFA rankRank in EuropeFrance5.6517.10%22England6.216.10%43Belgium7.513.30%11Germany911.10%128Portugal9.3110.74%54Italy9.510.50%76Spain9.7510.30%65Netherlands13.87.26%1611

As we can see from the data above, France were clear favorites to lift the European Championship in 2021 and were closely followed by England .

Italy on the other hand were not even in the top 5 teams in terms of probability of winning Euro 2020.

Biggest Upsets During Euro 2020

Just like many major tournaments,. Euro 2020 saw some major upsets.How did Italy beat the odds to reach the final of Euro 2020? Why did France not reach the final? We will answer all those questions below:

The first major upset could have occurred on June 23 when Germany faced Hungary. Hungary was leading 2-1 in the 68th minute. This would have resulted in Germany not qualifying for the knockout stage in a major tournament since the 1984 World Cup. But a goal from Goretzka saved Germany from this fate and they qualified for the knockout stage where they faced England.
The first major upset in Euro 2020 happened on june 27 in the round of 16 when Switzerland who had 1.45% probability to win Euro 2020 defeated the tournament favorites France.
The second major upset happened the next day when the Netherlands were defeated by Czech Republic. The Czech Republic had a 0.76% chance of winning Euro 2020 compared to the Netherlands who had a 7.26% chance and performed exceptionally well during the group stage.

Who will be the Top Scorer in Euro 2020 Odds and Predictions

PlayerGoalsOddsProbabilityCristiano Ronaldo52.4740%Patrik Schick52.4740%Harry Kane44.223.80%Raheem Sterling3214.80%Ciro Immobile21001%

From the odds table for the top scorer in Euro 2020 we can see that Ronaldo and Patrick Schick seem to be the favorites to win the golden boot in Euro 2020.

Harry Kane comes in next after scoring 4 goals in his last 4 games. He has a 23.8% probability of being the top scorer and we take into consideration the fact that he is also adept at making assists, he has good odds at being the top scorer in Euro 2020.

It could be hard for Raheem Sterling to be but it’s not impossible. He hasn’t scored a goal in the last 2 games but if he manages to score 1 he could end up being the top scorer in Euro 2021. With odds of 21, this could help you potentially win $210 from a $10 bet.

Ciro immobile has a very slim chance of being the top scorer in Euro 2020 with bookmakers giving him a 1% probability. No player has scored a hatrick in the history of the European Championship so it seems unlikely that he might score a hatrick and Harry Kane doesn’t score as well.

But this might be a good bet for a small amount of say $5, which you expect to lose and are placing a bet for fun considering the 100x payout.

Now onto our predictions for the Euro 2020 Final between Italy and England.

Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Predictions

The Italy vs England game in the finals of Euro 2020 will be a very hard game to predict since both of these teams are evenly matched.

In order to make our predictions we will be relying on the odds set by bookmakers, the form of each team in the tournament and statistics. We won’t be relying on the head to head past results between Italy and England because those games have been played over years.

So let’s get started with comparing the form of Italy and England

England and Italy Comparison of Performance during Euro 2020

England is a team that has been progressively getting better during the course of Euro 2021 while Italy has remained consistent in its performance.

During the group stage, England qualified with 2 wins and a draw and scored just 2 goals but conceded 0 goals. Italy on the other hand scored 7 goals, and conceded 0 goals.

TeamGoals scoredGoals concededShots per gamePossessionItaly702059%England207.354%

Concerns were being raised by England’s “cautious” playing style and some pundits expected England to lose against Germany in the knockout stage. However, England surprised the pundits and won 2-0 against Germany while playing some good entertaining football.

This was a historic win for England and the first time they defeated Germany in the knockout stage of a major tournament in 55 years.

Italy beat Austria in extra time, a team that was renowned for its ability to defend.

In the quarterfinals England faced a relatively easy opponent in Ukraine and yet again played some fantastic football scoring 4 goals and won the game 4-0.

Italy faced a formidable opponent in Belgium who are ranked as the number one team by FIFA. Italy were leading 2-0 in the second half before conceding a penalty which Lukaky converted.

Italy held on as Belgium attacked ruthlessly in the second half while also creating some good scoring opportunities on the counter against the best team in the world.

In the semi finals England dominated Denmark and registered the most shots in any game they played so far with 59% possession and 20 shots while Denmark only managed only 6.

Italy faced another difficult opponent in Spain. Spain were also favorites to win Euro 2020 at the start of the tournament. Italy struck first and then defended well but Spain ultimately equalized with 10 minutes to go and the game went into extra time and was decided on penalties.

We can see that England faced one of the favorites (Germany) on their triumphant march to the final of Euro 2021. Italy on the other hand had to beat 2 other favorites, Belgium and Spain in order to earn their place in the final.

Overall Form of Italy and England

England are unbeaten in 12 games while Italy is unbeaten in 33 games. Both teams have a good defensive record with England’s 7 game streak of clean sheets broken by Denmark while Italy’s clean sheet record was broken in the round of 16.

Italy vs England stats

TeamGoals scoredGoals concededShots per gamePossessionItaly1231852%England1019.553%

After the knockout stage, England has picked up a lot of goals and their shots per game have increased. Both teams look evenly matched in terms of the team stats

Now we will compare the stats of key players starting with the midfield

Italy beat England in terms of creating through balls with a combined average of 1.8 through balls between Jorginho(11th highest through ball rate in Euro 2020),Insigne,Immobile and Barrella.

Only Luke shaw (18th) features in terms of creating long balls in the top 20 players who created through balls

Italy are also superior in terms of key passes stats

Barrella has created the third highest key passes per game, followed by Insigne who is seventh and Spinnazzola who is 15th

England only has Mason Mount on that list of top 20 players in Euro 2020 with the highest key passes per game and he is ranked 16th

The Italians also dominate in stats for shots per game with 3 players featuring in the top 20 while England have no players on that list

If you look at the stats for interceptions and tackles per game you will notice Italy yet again outperforms England.

Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Odds

The odds are constantly changing for this game. As of july 8 2021,bookmakers are offering the following odds for the Italy vs England game in the Euro 2020 final:

England 2.65Draw 3.00Italy 2.95

From these odds we can clearly see that bookmakers believe that the game odds are very close between the two games which means that Bookmakers believe the game could go either way.

However, based on the lower odds and payout for England, we can see that bookmakers favor England to win.

Who will win in the final of Euro 2020 between Italy and England

We at slotfreespin disagree with the bookmakers odds and favor Italy to win Euro 2020. We disagree with the bookmakers because there is a chance that bookmakers are offering lower payouts for England because English fans around the world might be more exciting and backing their team compared to Italians.

Keep in mind that the gambling profits are larger in the UK compared to Italy. The UK market is worth $3.8 billion while the Italian market is worth $1.7 billion. 

We believe Italy will win by very fine margins but England will manage to score. We predict Italy will win 2-1 in the Euro 2020 final.

Italy will in our opinion because statistically they have technically better players with higher interceptions,tackles per game, key passes per game and through balls per game compared to England’s players.

Bookmaker offers for betting on Italy vs England in the Euro 2020 final

In our opinion, b-bets is one of the best bookmakers for betting on the Euro 2020 final game between Italy and England. b-Bets currently has a cashback offer that gives you €1 back for every €5 you make on a bet on the Euro 2020. 

You can click on the following image to visit b-Bets and claim this offer in their promotion section.

Where will the Euro 2020 final between Italy and England take place?

The Euro 2020 final between Italy and England will take place on July 11,2021 at the Wembley stadium in London. The game will kick off at 2100 hrs.

Italy vs England Lineups

Italy Predicted line up

4-3-3

Donnarumma,Emerson,Bonucci,Chiellini,Florenzi,Verratti,Jorginho,Barella,Insigne,Immobile,Chiesa

England predicted line up

4-2-3-1

Pickford,Shaw,Maguire,Walker,Rice,Kalvin Phillips,Grealish,Mount,Sterling,Kane

Italy vs England Euro 2020 Final Betting Tips

If you read our articles on football betting systems and football betting tips, you would realize Italy vs England is the perfect match to place a bet on in Euro 2020.

The reason for that is simple, the odds for both teams are above 2.0 and it will be a closely contested match.

We have a betting tip for you that could help you win some money no matter who wins…

Place one bet on Italy to win and one bet(of equal amount) on Spain  to win. In this case you only lose your money if there is a draw but that is unlikely to happen in such a crucial game.

So essentially what you do is you split your budget for the game. Let’s say you have a budget of €200 for this game. You place one bet of €100 on Italy and another €100 on Spain.

If Italy wins your Profit percentage would be 47.5% because your Profit would be €310-€200=€95 and 110 is 47.5% of your investment of 200.

If England wins you would still end up with a 32.5% profit (€265-€200=€65 is 32.5% of 200).

Sure, this system means that your profit percentage would be lower if you just bet on one team (195 % profit if you just bet on Italy and 165% if you just bet on England) but this system reduces the chances that you will lose your money.

Keep in mind that this is not a fool proof system. If the match ends in a draw.

TeamOddsBet AmountWinProfit %Italy2.95€100€29547.5%England2.65€100€26532.5%